With the real College Football Playoff Rankings coming out on Tuesday November 5th, I thought I would do a preview of who I would put in my Top 25. Agree or disagree? #WhoIsIn
Claire’s Top 25 as of November 1st, 2019
1. LSU 
No team looks better than LSU right now. They started the year with one of the highest strength of schedule ratings and Joe Burrow is on fire. In one year their offense has gone from lackluster to national championship contender. Its true that their win over a healthier but still beat up Texas is starting to not look as good as we first thought but they handled Florida, dismantled Utah St and beat Auburn. Obviously everything comes down to next weekend’s showdown with Bama but the Tigers have a serious argument for the CFP with their only loss being to the former #1.
2. Ohio St 
Man, I would not want to play the Buckeyes right now! The closest margin of victory for Ohio St came against Michigan St and FAU (in the first game of the year) where the Buckeyes ‘only’ won by 24 points. They stomped Wisconsin (a resume building notable win), have an impenetrable defense and their offense hasn’t looked this good since their last National Championship back in 2014 (maybe better – ya I said it). But their work isn’t done, Ohio St will play both Penn St and Michigan before the Big 10 Championship game where they might see the Badgers again or the Gophers (both of which are ranked).
3. Alabama 
Now don’t freak out on me. Alabama is my #3 because they haven’t played someone that makes me say “oh dang that’s impressive.” That all changes on November 9th. Alabama needs Tua back for that game as Joe Burrow has had a killer season. Expect that game to be a shootout (Big 12 style) as Alabama’s defense has taken a hit from a couple of years ago. Alabama fans should be worried about if they lose the game next weekend, do they still make the CFP? Honestly I am skeptical. They may need help from some mayhem in the Big 10 as Alabama’s notable wins will be Auburn (who could and probably will have 3 losses by the time the Tide comes to town)… and a once ranked Texas A&M.
4. Clemson 
Sorry to say but Clemson is playing like #4/#5 right now – not super impressive. The ACC is a mess with only Wake Forest being ranked (and I put them at #24) and their only ‘notable’ win is against Texas A&M at home. Not so notable now that the Aggies have lost 3 games and prob have 2 more losses coming. The Tigers’ win over UNC by 1 point also leaves me with a bad taste in my mouth after the Tar Heels failed to get a 2 point conversion to beat the reigning national champions. I know, I know Clemson still won and a good team pulls out wins when you need them to but there hasn’t been anything special. Trevor Lawrence has struggled this season as well (especially in the Syracuse game) but he’s rebounding nicely. Clemson needs to run the table (and they should); if they lose they’re out.
5. Penn St 
The Nittany Lions were one of the main teams to reap the benefits of Oklahoma’s loss as they could lose one game (to Ohio St), get left out of the Big 10 Championship game and be left out of the CFP. Not so much anymore. Don’t get me wrong that could still happen, especially if the SEC has anything to say about it but it definitely got harder to leave Penn St out of CFP conversations. But Nittany Lions, you win, you go – it’s that simple. If simple is beating undefeated Minnesota and of course Ohio St along with the Big 10 Championship game.
6. Georgia 
Oh Georgia. That loss to South Carolina may haunt that team (and Blankenship) for the rest of their days. But again, you win out, you go. No one would deny the Bulldogs a spot if they beat Florida, Auburn and the SEC West Champion (LSU or Bama). That being said, Georgia’s offense is so hot and cold. Jake Fromm, who was in Heisman discussions in the preseason, has been good but not great (Fromm is 30th – 40th in the country in most QB stats). Notre Dame was a notable win for the Bulldogs and so would Florida after this weekend in what basically is the SEC East Championship decider. If the Bulldogs want to make it back to the big dance, Fromm will need to pick up his passing game and they still have some serious teams to beat.
7. Oregon 
Oregon is the best chance the Pac 12 has to make it into the CFP, especially after Oklahoma’s loss. The only loss Oregon has is to Auburn in the last 9 seconds of the game by 6 points. The being said, their wins have been close the last 2 weeks (4 points vs Washington and 2 points vs Washington St) but they still managed to win. The Ducks control their own destiny; they need to win out to stand a chance. The Ducks also need to cheer for Utah to win out and USC to lose again (see below for further details here). Oregon needs that notable win against Utah to argue its way into the CFP.
8. Florida 
I really wanted to move Florida out of the top 10 but I will refrain for now. I have not been super impressed with the Gators to date. Here’s why: their win over Kentucky (who is 4-4) was ugly (29-21) and they squeaked by a bad Miami (another 4-4) team by 4. But their loss to LSU was better than the score looked. The game only got away from them with ~3 minutes to go in the 3rd The win against Auburn was decent 24-13 but I also think Auburn is over rated. So moral of the story is I think Florida will lose this weekend and I will happily drop them down the rankings. I also wouldn’t mind playing them in a bowl game (*sly smile*).
9. Utah 
Like I said, Oregon is the Pac 12’s best CFP chance – not Utah. The Utes are in a tough position at the moment. USC and Utah both only have 1 conference loss however Utah’s is to USC which would send USC to the Championship game in a tiebreaker (assuming both teams win out). This can all change this weekend if USC losses to Oregon (Ducks are favored by 4.5). USC is 5-3 this season with maybe 2 more losses coming (Arizona St should be a good game). This makes the Utes loss to them look worse and worse.
10. Oklahoma 
With a slip up against Kansas St, Oklahoma has to win out in convincing fashion to have a chance at the CFP. They also need some luck. The Sooners has one of the top 5 hardest schedules left to play, having to play Baylor and Oklahoma St on the road but Iowa St in Norman. Oklahoma needs Baylor undefeated when they play and they kinda need Texas to be better (did I seriously just say that?!) to make that close win into a notable win. Otherwise Oklahoma is short a notable win and might be left out of the CFP.
11. Minnesota 
Minnesota also has one of the hardest schedules left, having to play playing #5 Penn St next week, then #19 Iowa and #18 Wisconsin to round out conference play. If the Golden Gophers win out, they will play in the Big 10 conference championship game (most likely against Ohio St). So while I like Minnesota, I don’t think they will make it through the season undefeated. In the meantime, I happily place them at #11 but no higher due to the lackluster teams they have played so far.
12. Baylor 
Baylor is undefeated (*cheers – everyone loves a comeback story*) but their wins are not against anyone particularly exciting (sorry OSU, ISU and KSU). However by the time season ends, if Baylor remains undefeated they will have beaten TCU, Oklahoma and Texas. Matt Rhule has done a nice job turning this team around from the Art Briles scandal in 2016. The Bears are in charge of their own destiny however, unlike the rest of the Big 12; win out and you pretty much go to the CFP. But until they get a notable win, the Bears are still holding down at #12.
13. Michigan 
Michigan, I admit confuses me. Their losses to Wisconsin and Penn St were absolutely excusable and not surprising. But their complete domination of Notre Dame had to make Vegas some serious money. Harbaugh was 1-9 against ranked teams before that game. With Notre Dame as a notable win (and maybe their win against Iowa) and 2 losses to respectable teams (including a close one to Penn St), Michigan earned my top spot for a 2 loss team. The Wolverines still have Michigan St and Ohio St left too so they cannot sit back on their laurels just yet.
14. Auburn 
It was close between Auburn and Michigan for my top ranked 2 loss team. In my opinion I think Auburn is over rated – I am calling it now: they will lose 2 more games by over 14 points each (granted to Georgia and Alabama) but still expect those scores to be high. There is no argument against the tough schedule they have played with Oregon out of conference and Florida (SEC East). But remember that Oregon led the ENTIRE game until the final 9 seconds.
15. SMU 
I think everyone is excited to get behind the team that made the death penalty extinct because it is too harsh of a punishment for a program. After 3 decades, the Mustangs are now back in the Top 25 and undefeated! The question is can they keep it up? SMU has played a lot of close games to good (TCU, Temple) and bad opponents (Houston and UNT who both have a losing record 3-5). This weekend’s ranked matchup will be a great test on the road. TCU is also a notable win for SMU and if they win out, the Mustangs will go into the AAC Championship game most likely against Cincinnati.
16. Wisconsin 
Yes Wisconsin has had a rough few weeks but let’s not forget that the Badgers had 4 shut outs at the beginning of the season. The Illinois loss looks bad and they really could’ve used the Ohio St win to establish themselves as a CFP contender. But they are still in a good spot to make it into the Big 10 Championship game as Minnesota still has to play 3 ranked opponents.
17. Notre Dame 
Notre Dame has lost 2 games they should have lost (Georgia and Michigan). And while the Georgia game was close, the Michigan game was not! Without those teams the most notable win for the Fighting Irish is UVA (who was ranked at the time but is not ranked anymore after losing to 2 ACC teams). The USC game was also closer than it should have been with the Trojans coming back and failing to get an onside kick (we can argue over the review later). All in all Notre Dame doesn’t impress me with what they have done so far and there’s not a whole lot left in their schedule to change my mind.
18. Cincinnati 
With their only loss being a shut out by Ohio St, Cincinnati deserves to be ranked. But where is the tougher question as they still have some tough games ahead. Temple, Memphis and the AAC Championship game will give us a better reference on the Bearcats. The only wins I am (semi) impressed with are UCLA and UCF. This is a wait-and-see team.
19. Boise St 
Boise St was undefeated until their game against BYU where they lost by 3. And while it was close and otherwise they have won all their games, the Broncos schedule hurts them this year. The most notable team they have played is Florida St who is 4-4 and 4th in the ACC Atlantic division. Boise St usually has a ranked opponent to boost themselves up the rankings but not this year.
20. Kansas St 
The Wildcats threw a wrench in Oklahoma’s CFP hopes last week when they pulled off the upset and now they are reaping the reward. Kansas St is 5-2 with losses to an undefeated Baylor and a just outside Top 25 Oklahoma St. They also beat Mississippi St before conference play started. K St still has to play Texas, West Virginia and Iowa St.
21. Iowa 
The Hawkeyes’ 2 losses were to ranked opponents by a TD or less (Michigan by 7 and Penn St by 6) but they still have 2 ranked opponents to go. Out of conference they beat a good Iowa St team with a skilled QB (granted only by 1 point). But Iowa is missing a truly notable win to be ranked higher.
22. Memphis 
This week will make or break the Tigers. With wins against Ole Miss and Navy, they deserve to be ranked. But add a win this week against the undefeated Mustangs and they should improve significantly. Memphis will also have Cincinnati as their last conference game. Their only loss was to a good Temple team by 2 on the road.
23. UCF 
I realllly don’t like putting them back in the rankings but I think they deserve it. The Knights only have 2 losses to Cincinnati (by 3) which now looks good as they are ranked and Pitt (by 1). They did beat Stanford handily but the Cardinals have looked weak this season (4-4). Also I have no idea what that photo is but its on their twitter account.
24. Wake Forest 
Despite being 6-1, Wake Forest’s resume is not strong. Their one loss was to Louisville and their wins have been by the skin of their teeth (2 against Florida St, 3 against Utah St, 3 against Boston College). If they fight well against Clemson, Syracuse and VTech they should move up.
25. Texas 
The banged up Longhorns are still ranked for in my CFP ranking as opposed to the AP poll. This is due to the rivalry and close loss to Oklahoma (by 7) and a loss to LSU (by 7). However there is no getting around last week’s loss to TCU and the week before squeaking out a win against Kansas – it wasn’t pretty. Texas is also missing a notable win but they have Kansas St, Iowa St and Baylor left to play – 2 of those teams should be ranked when they play the horns.
Notable Mentions – Claire’s Just Outside
Washington
- The Stanford loss is what kills the Huskies. The other 2, 1 point loss to Cal (remember Cal was ranked at one point in time) and a loss to Oregon by 4 points are decent. But they also have no notable wins. That’s why they are out of my Top 25 for now.
Indiana
- The Hoosiers have an argument for the Top 25 as well. Their only 2 losses this season are from Ohio St (duh) and a ranked at the time Michigan St (by 9). Indiana has Penn St and Michigan back-to-back to test how good they are and if they deserved to be ranked.
Texas A&M
- If we discuss Iowa St as a possibility with 3 losses, you have to include Texas A&M with that. Their 3 losses are against Clemson, Alabama and Auburn all of whom were ranked in the Top 10 when they played the Aggies. Texas A&M has had to face one of the hardest schedules all year with playing Clemson before conference play and 4 Top 10 ranked opponents in the SEC (East included). However, the Aggies are missing a notable win and I am not sure they will get one unless they pull off a huge upset against Georgia or LSU (both on the road).
Appalachian St
- Admittedly I cheated a little bit here because I wrote this post the day after they lost to Georgia Southern. All hope is not lost for the Mountaineers however as they play South Carolina next week and with that and the previous win against UNC, I could see them jumping back into the bottom of the Top 25!
San Diego St
- The Aztecs beat UCLA but lost to Utah St by 6. They still have to play BYU. Really after looking at their resume, that’s it; nothing crazy impressive here but also nothing too bad either.
Navy
- Their loss was to a now-ranked Memphis (by 9) but the Midshipmen have no impressive wins. That being said, they do have Notre Dame, SMU and Army left so there is potential for a Top 25 ranking.
Iowa St
- With 3 losses, you might question my judgement here. But those 3 losses were close and to decent teams. Top 25 ranked Iowa won by 1, undefeated Baylor won by 2 and Oklahoma St won by 7. Iowa St still has a tough schedule left too with Oklahoma and Texas back-to-back and Kansas St at the end of conference play. The Cyclones need a notable win to complete that CFP ranking resume.
Reasons not to rank others:
Oklahoma St (loss to Texas Tech), Pitt (loss to Miami), UVA (loss to Miami), TCU (>20 point loss to Iowa St), USC (loss to BYU), Air Force (lack of notable win), Mizzou (>20 point loss to Kentucky)
Things that went into my decisions:
Notable wins, losses, record, difficulty of schedule and opponents, rivalry games, ability to win on the road, etc.
Don’t forget to tune in for the real ESPN CFP Ranking Show on 11/5 on ESPN @ 8pm CT (keep in mind that this time is approximate as the rankings will be shown in between NCAAM Kansas/Duke and Michigan St/Kentucky games).
**Please note that all team logos have been taken from their football team twitter accounts and are used purely for visual aid purposes. I am in no way associated with the teams. **
