Kentucky Derby 2022 Update

The Kentucky Derby is tomorrow so here is everything you need to know. Also if you missed my first post or need a refresher on the difference between a Trifecta and Perfecta is, click here for all kinds of details.

This year’s Triple Crown

• This year is the 148th Kentucky Derby (KY) on May 7^th, 2022
  • Tune into NBC at 1:30pm for coverage
    • Actual race time: ~5:57pm
  • The race is 1.25 miles long ~2 minutes
    • Secretariat has the track record at 1:59.4
• The Preakness Stakes (‘Preakness’) (MD) – May 21st, 2022
• The Belmont Stakes (NY) – June 11^th, 2022

Why is this such a big dang deal?

It is called the ‘Most excited 2 minutes in sports’ and bets can total up to $233MM a year. The winner gets $1.86MM of the $3MM purse. Brands that partner with the Derby make a killing. William Sonoma, Woodford Reserve and Vineyard Vines just to name a few. What other time of year do you see so many men in pastels?

Even football players and golfs show up in in pinks and all decked out.

This year’s Horses

• Some of the favorites: (live odds)

• • Epicenter (9-2)- he won 3 races in Louisiana that are known to be prep races

• • Taiba (5-1) – he is undefeated in the 2 races he ran in before this including the Santa Anita Derby. If he wins, his jockey would be the oldest jockey to win the Derby at 56.

• • Messier (7-1) – his trainer is Tim Yakteen. You may not recognize it but he was Bob Baffert’s former assistant.

• • Mo Donegal (7-1) – He has top trainer Todd Pletcher, an experienced jockey and has already beaten Zandon in a race before. Watch for his closing speed at the end.

• • Zandon (8-1) – he was the opening betting favorite. He tends to run from the back so don’t be too discouraged if he starts there but this black beauty can run.

• • White Abbario (10-1) – he is the best race horse in Florida but his only loss is at this track…

• The horse with a great story: Barber Road
  • Barber Road was purchased by the former CEO of Walmart for just $15,000. His trainer, jockey and owner are all Derby rookies so this would be a great story if he were to win. My tip: bet him to place. He has had 4 runner-up finishes.
• SCR – aka Scratches
  • There are 2 scratches so far: Ethereal Road and Rattle N Roll

• Long shot: Rich Strike (99-1)

Some helpful tips when betting this year

• Although the #1 posting spot is tempting, that spot is extremely hard to get a clean run from.
  • Since 1978 only 3 horses from post 1-3 have won the race. That’s because if the horse (or jockey) makes a slight mistake, they can get swallowed up by the other 20 horses fighting for that inside rail.
• A clean trip makes all the difference. Since 2008, 6 winners have been from post 13 or wider due to the ability to make it cleanly around the track.
• 8 of the last 12 winners have been top 3 at 2nd call. So quick starters tend to be successful in recent years. That being said, make sure they can still last the 1 1/4 miles (10 furlongs).
• Favorites are favorites for a reason. Every horse from 2013-2018 that won was the favorite.
• Don’t put too much stock in winning races in Dubai, those are known for being impressive but the Kentucky Derby is a big step up from those races.
• D. Wayne Lukas has his 50th Derby starter in this race, Ethereal Road. The 86-year old has wont he Derby 4 other times, can he make it 5?
• Sticking with that theme, trainers are important. 3 trainers have been responsible for half of the winners in the last 12 years. Those trainers are Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher and Doug O’Neil.

Bob Baffert will not be at Churchill Downs

• Remember Bob Baffert’s horse, Medina Spirit, was disqualified after winning the Run of the Roses after failing a post-race drug test. He has been banned for 2 years.
• Baffert was the trainer responsible for 2 Triple Crowns and a record breaking 7 Kentucky Derby wins (that includes Medina Spirit so it’s back to a record-tying 6).
• There were lounges, suites and signs of Baffert all over the iconic track that have now been removed.
• Tim Yakteen was Baffert’s assistant 20 years ago and was not super involved in the upper echelon of Baffert’s horses but the betting odds are certainly swaying towards him. He has 2 horses that were Baffert trainees Taiba and Messier.

If you want to know more about the Kentucky Derby, I covered it in this article!