Who’s In?

In honor of Selection Sunday…

This is my break down of how the College Football Playoff committee will decide who the Final 4 teams will be playing for the 2020 National Championship. Which teams are sitting pretty as a shoo-in, who needs some luck and even who needs a miracle.

Ok so here is how they sit now…

1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Clemson
4. Ohio St

Realistically those could be our Final 4. I will say with significant confidence that those rankings won’t be final as Clemson and Notre Dame play each other again. And all the teams in the final four have games this weekend against ranked opponents.

Lets dive into the specifics.

Who’s in right now?

#1 Alabama

Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide play the Florida Gators in the SEC championship game on Saturday. We can pretty much set them aside as a guaranteed team.

• Record: 10-0
• Ranked Opponents: #13 Texas A&M (now #5), #3 Georgia (now #8), #22 Auburn (now unranked)
• If they win this week add Florida to that list.
• If they win: They will be ranked #1 going into Selection Sunday
• If they lose: They will still get into the CFP pretty much no matter what else happens. This loss to Florida would be their first on the season after a dominant showing. They, like everyone else, had to deal with COVID but they still manage to play 10 games (like a normal season) and did so against all SEC teams. It’s an impressive feat that the committee won’t discount.

#2 Notre Dame

They play Clemson in the ACC Championship game on Saturday but they have already played each other once where the Fighting Irish took it into 2OT to win. That win gives them a huge leg up on qualifying for the CFP. They have wins versus #3 Clemson and #15 UNC.

• • However their win has a HUGE caveat. Clemson was without QB Trevor Lawrence due to COVID protocols. One player like Trevor can absolutely make the difference. Lawrence is up for the Heisman, which means he is considered one of the very best players in college football. He is a difference maker by definition of being up for the Heisman.

• Record: 10-0
• Ranked Opponents: #1 Clemson (now #3), #19 UNC (now #15)
• If they win: Notre Dame will most likely stay #2 and go to the CFP.
• If they lose: Well it depends on how much. If they lose close (7-ish points) then they’ll probably still go the CFP. If they get destroyed (21 points) then that miiiight open the door for another team. The committee could argue that the only reason why Notre Dame won the first time is because Trevor Lawrence couldn’t play. Granted they will only have 1 loss and 2 substantial wins. Analysts and the GameDay crew are all pretty much in agreement that Notre Dame’s place in the CFP is safe whether they win or lose.

#3 Clemson

Obviously they play Notre Dame Fighting Irish. As previously stated their starting QB Trevor Lawrence was out during the last match up but the Clemson Tigers still took it to 2OT.

• Record: 9-1
  • Losses: #4 Notre Dame (2OT) (now ranked #2)
• Ranked Opponents: #7 Miami (now ranked #18)
• If they win: They’re in! Even if its by 1 point in 2OT.
• If they lose: They will miss the CFP. The chances of the committee taking a 2 loss team into the Final Four is highly unlikely. Even a 2 loss Clemson team where one loss had an asterisk. This loss would be fair and square. They could lose and still make the CFP if craziness happens but the committee would have to be ok with putting in a non-conference champion with 2 losses when there will be others with 1 loss or none (in the case of Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina). It is very hard to beat a team twice, so if the Fighting Irish can pull it off again (and this time with their Heisman candidate QB), I’m not sure Clemson deserves to be in.

#4 Ohio St

The Buckeyes are playing #14 Northwestern in the Big 10 Championship game after their conference changed the game minimum. Ohio St has only played 5 games all season due to COVID.

• Record: 5-0
• Ranked Opponents: #18 Penn St (now unranked), #9 Indiana (now #11)
• If they win: They get into the CFP Final Four.
• If they lose: They’re (most likely) out. Even though that will have been Ohio St’s only loss, I think this is where only playing 5 games in their regular season will hurt them. The committee can overlook that for an undefeated team but to also have no conference championship (which has been explicitly stated is one criteria the committee looks at) and a loss in half the games everyone else played is too much to overlook.

BUT for fun lets say things go crazy. So now let’s go over some of the…

Teams on the Outside Looking In:

#7 Florida

They play #1 Alabama this weekend in the SEC Championship game. Despite their recent loss to LSU, they still won the SEC East. Georgia is 2^nd in the division and has the same number of losses but Florida beat Georgia head-to-head so they have the tiebreaker.

• Record: 8-2
  • Losses: #21 Texas A&M (now #5) and this past week to a bad LSU team which hurt the Gators big time
• Ranked Opponents: #5 Georgia (now #8)
• How they get in? They have to beat Alabama. That is the only way and even then it’s a long shot. Although the Gators can take some solace om the fact that after their loss to LSU they only fell 1 spot in the ranking. I think they would have to win in a big way to make the argument that they deserve to be in now that they lost another game. Without that LSU loss, all they would’ve needed to do was win. So think that shoe throwing penalty was big?

#5 Texas A&M

They play Tennessee this weekend in a make up game that was postponed due to COVID. The Aggies need some help if they are going to make their first CFP especially as they will not be a conference champion.

• Record: 7-1
  • Losses: Only loss was to #1 Alabama 52-24
• Ranked Opponents: #4 Florida (now #7)
• How they get in? First off they have to win against Tennessee. They lose that game (unlikely but so was Florida losing to LSU) they have no chance. But if they win, they also need Alabama to beat Florida and Notre Dame to beat Clemson again. This would likely open up a spot in the CFP final four. Another possibility is Ohio St losing to Northwestern, the Aggies would be up for that spot. But they need to watch out for the Bearcats as they would also be vying for that spot.
  • Texas A&M’s advantage: They’ve played better teams and beat #4 Florida. The Aggie’s will only have missed one game due to COVID that they couldn’t make up. And the CFP committee seems to be favoring them (and Iowa St) over undefeated Cincinnati who has dropped 2 spots after their opponents had to cancel games due to COVID.

#9 Cincinnati

The Bearcats are playing in the American Conference Championship game against #23 Tulsa. They were supposed to play Tulsa last week as well but COVID caused that game to be postponed and then canceled.

• Record: 8-0
• Ranked Opponents: #16 SMU (now unranked), #22 Army (now unranked),
• How they get in? They have to BIG win against Tulsa and they need some help along with serious style points. Same as Texas A&M, they need Alabama and Notre Dame to win or Ohio St to lose. Then it would come down to who do you take next? Texas A&M who already lost to Alabama (who would be their opponent in this scenario being ranked #1) or Cincinnati with no losses and a conference champion…
  • Cincinnati’s advantage: They will be the American conference champion. They would be undefeated. And let’s face it, this would be the one time it would be acceptable for the committee to take a non-Power 5 school into the CFP. They might take this opportunity to shut up the haters.

The Big 12 rep: #6 Iowa St

The Cyclones have a rematch with the Sooners in the Big 12 Championship game on Saturday morning. They got the better of the Sooners last time, but they need to do so again.

• Record: 8-2
  • Losses: Louisiana (now ranked #19), #6 Oklahoma St (now #21)
• Ranked Opponents: #18 Oklahoma (now #10), #17 Texas (now #20)
• How they get in? I’m not actually sure this is feasible. The committee has shown them some serious love after their demolition against West Virginia, but they still have 2 losses. They need Alabama and Notre Dame to win and Ohio St to lose to even be in the discussion. The Cyclones would also need Texas A&M to lose to Tennessee and/or Cincinnati to lose to Tulsa in their championship game. And having USC lose their championship game wouldn’t hurt either! But even with all that craziness, I think the committee would take a one loss Ohio St team or even a 2 loss Clemson team over Iowa St but this is 2020…
  • Iowa St advantage: The Top 25 ranking show on 12/15 was telling; the committee is loving the Cyclones. AND they will play a #10 Oklahoma team in their championship game.

#10 Oklahoma

OU was also discussed during the CFP Top 25 Ranking Show: that if the Sooners beat #6 Iowa St for the Big 12 Championship, would they have enough of a resume to make it into the Final Four discussion? As much as I would like to say yes, I doubt it. #10 to #4 is a lot of places to move. They are looking like a much more complete team than the last couple of years that they did make the playoff but that ugly loss to Kansas St, who has a 4-6 record, will haunt them. The Big 12’s hopes lay with the Cyclones.

The Pac 12 rep: #13 USC

USC plays in the Pac 12 Championship game on Friday night against the #2 team in the Pac 12 North, unranked Oregon. Washington had to pull out due to COVID issues.

• Record: 5-0
  • Why is this not the same as Ohio St’s 5-0? Not only have they not beaten a ranked team but they also haven’t beaten the teams they have played by a lot (3 games within a TD). Their opponents have a combined record of 7-14 this season.
• Ranked Opponents: None! Even their Pac 12 Championship opponent is unranked and has a record of 3-2.
• How they get in? Similar to Iowa St, they need some craziness. Alabama and Notre Dame win, Ohio St losses AND Texas A&M and Cincinnati lose. Then they would be talked about. It would also help them if Iowa St lost as well.

#12 Coastal Carolina

They play #19 Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship game this weekend. They have already beaten the Ragin Cajun’s once during the regular season and won 30-27.

• Record: 11-0
• Ranked Opponents: #21 Louisiana (now #19), #13 BYU (now #17)
• How they get in? It is almost impossible now that the committee has kept them at #12 ranking. I just wanted to touch on them because they deserve to be in the conversation. They not only have beaten BYU and Louisiana but also a Power 5 school, although it was Kansas. It seems that the committee is not giving the non-Power 5 schools much of a way into the CFP. The non-Power 5 might have to play some strong Power 5 teams in the preseason to potentially secure a spot.

Claire’s Final Four:

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio St
4. Notre Dame

I’d say there’s about an 80% chance the final four teams now will be the final four teams on Sunday.

• I do think Clemson (with Trevor Lawrence) will win against Notre Dame by more than 7 points. This would then put Notre Dame to #4 and Clemson to #2. My reasoning behind these rankings is that Clemson and Notre Dame will have played 2xs already and the committee will not want to set up a three-peat match up. Unless it’s at the national championship where they both had to beat other teams to get there. Then I think they (and we as the general viewers) would have to agree that those 2 teams are evenly matched and 2 of the best in the country – they just happen to be in the same conference this year.
• Ohio St will win against Northwestern. And will therefore will get into the CFP.
• Oh and Alabama will beat Florida. Handily. Duh.

Moral of the story, the Final Four looks set unless something wild happens. The Big 12, Pac 12 and non-Power 5 schools would be left out. And the national championship game could be a three-peat between Notre Dame and Clemson. But here’s who I have making it to the natty…

Alabama vs Ohio St. Controversial I know. Most people have yet another Alabama vs Clemson show down. But I think that Ohio St will feel the benefit of not playing a full season here. They are better rested, less injured and ready to prove themselves after they have been kinda doubted all year with their late start.

Happy Championship Week yall!